Obviously don’t stop betting on the NFL if that’s what you enjoy. But you are literally never going to win in the long term. So if you like money, maybe see if you enjoy MMA because that’s where you have the 1% chance at being profitable sports gambling.
You’ll never beat the odds in football because there are people out there who create computer programs you and I wouldn’t even know how to open. They look at everything from the type of grass to wind velocity. You don’t even know what velocity means and can barely spell the word grass.
You might win here and there but overtime those guys will crush you and take your lunch. It’s like saying you have a shot at beating a chess world champion occasionally by playing random moves, because your random moves could turn out to be the best ones. Never going to happen.
Case in point, the world chess champion Magnus Carlsen is also a fantasy sports champion in soccer. It’s 100% NOT a coincidence that he’s better than you at both chess and sports betting. Carlsen is a once in a generation genius that takes every variable into consideration to win at chess, and that skill translates to sports betting. And you’re some average intellect guy reading the MBS Report. It’s not just me talking, research shows you don’t stand a chance.
So why is MMA betting any better?
The short answer is lack of data.
Let’s say you like betting on the Patriots to win over the Bills. The “sharp” bettors know exactly how the Patriots’ QB performs against the Bills’ defense when they’ve had a bi-week, and the coach gave 2.6+ interviews, and the WR mentioned the word winning less than 4 times, and the temperature is 0.5F more than average.
They know these things because they collect the data from every single game the Patriots played under every type of circumstance.
But they don’t have the same advantage in MMA. Fighters rarely fight more than 3 times a year, and facing the same opponent twice is even more unusual. Even when fighting the same opponent, everything else is usually different like location, fight camp length, age, significant strikes landed and received, weight class, etc.
Also because fighters only compete a few times a year, they often experience huge jumps or drops in performance that can’t be calculated by crunching variables and numbers.
So your research has to be through watching fights and training footage.
Case in point, numbers could never show how much Max Holloway improved his boxing to put a beating on Calvin Kattar on January 16 2021. You would have had to watch Max’s training videos with strong expertise in boxing, watch his sparring videos, listen to his or his coaches’ or teammates’ interviews on what he’s focusing or improving on.
Then there’s the unknown fighters. In the NFL every single player has official stats as early as highschool against other top notch players.
But even at the highest level of MMA, you still get unknown fighters who come out of nowhere. And stats don’t contribute much to betting on those guys because up until they get to the UFC, they’re facing other no name fighters. So even if they’re averaging 500 strikes on their opponents each fight, that usually doesn’t translate to the UFC where their opponent is one of the best in the world. So you have to watch their fights, and make a subjective determination of how their skill match up against their opponent. The more knowledgeable about fighting you are, the better you’ll be at assessing their skills.
Of course stats have their place in MMA betting. You can dig deep into how many strikes a fighter typically lands under which circumstances, and bet the over or under.
But MMA is probably the only remaining sport where the best way to improve your betting odds is to educate yourself on the sport itself, and to consumer more of it. Which is way more fun than the sad reality of other sports that have been dominated by computer programs and extreme statistics. Watching all of Tom Brady’s training isn’t going to make you a better sports bettor. The number crunchers will crush you every time over the long term.
So give MMA betting a shot. Maybe you take it to the extreme and go train at one of the big MMA gyms like Greg Jackson where they’ll accept you as an armature and you can peak at how the pros are looking.
At the end of the day this is supposed to be fun. Unfortunately technology took the fun out for the casual sports bettor for most sports by making it a requirement to use complicated and expensive computer programs to succeed at all.
MMA betting is the last one standing against the machines. Get in on the fun before the computers figure it out and there’s nothing left.